Pai Gow Poker Odds

Pai Gow poker is still a new, exotic game to most American casino-goers. As a result, there are few manuals examining the odds of the game here. But the odds and probabilities of Pai Gow poker are firmly quantified, although they're fluid because of the banking aspect of the game.

The Pai Gow Poker House Edge

A Pai Gow player who does not bank gives the house an edge of 2.84%.

There are two different dynamics at work in this number.

The first is the 5% house commission.

This seems high compared to other casino games like blackjack, for example. But it takes twice as long to play a hand of Pai Gow poker as it does to play a hand of blackjack, so the casino needs a higher edge to maintain their same hourly expectation. The commission accounts for 1.57% of the house edge.

The second dynamic is how banking affects a non-banking player's odds. Players lose ties with the banker, which gives the house an additional 1.27% edge.

House Ways

Playing perfect Pai Gow strategy is a good thing to do, even though it only increases your winning percentage by 0.03%. (That's $3 for every $1000 of action, by the way.)

But part of the enjoyment of Pai Gow poker is the art of setting your hands. Setting your hand correctly every time leads to a full enjoyment of the game, which is a lot more fun than guessing.

How Banking in Pai Gow Poker Affects Your Odds

Pai Gow poker is one of the only casino games where the player can play as the bank. A larger bankroll is needed for this, but it reduces the house edge almost to 0%. If you're allowed to bank half of the hands you play, you can reduce your negative expectation from 2.84% to 1.42%. And if you're allowed to bank more than half your hands, that will drive your expectation even lower.