It's foolish to play any casino game blindly, without
understanding the odds. Luck matters, but being informed and making
correct decisions matter too. Winning players understand the odds of
the games they play, and Caribbean Poker players are no exception.
Decisions don't matter in some casino games, like slots or
baccarat, but they do matter in others, like blackjack or video
poker. Caribbean Stud poker is a game where your decisions DO
matter, and making correct decisions begins with understanding some
of the odds and probabilities involved.
Odds of Getting Certain Hands in Caribbean Stud Poker
Following is a listing of possible hands in Caribbean Stud Poker
and the probability of receiving these hands. The numbers are
approximate and rounded up or down.
| No hand at all |
1 in 2 hands |
| One pair |
1 in 2 habds |
| Two Pair |
1 in 21 hands |
| 3 of a Kind |
1 in 47 hands |
| Straight |
1 in 256 hands |
| Flush |
1 in 526 hands |
| Full House |
1 in 694 hands |
| 4 of a Kind |
1 in 4167 hands |
| Straight Flush |
1 in 72,202 hands |
| Royal Flush |
1 in 649,351 hands |
Better hands happen less often. Most of the time you'll get dealt
nothing, a pair, or two pair - with an occasional 3 of a kind for
variety.
Given these numbers, the only time you should fold is if you have
nothing at all or only one pair. Also, a lot of times, the dealer
won't qualify.
Caribbean Stud Poker Tips
Always stay in (don't fold) when you have 2 pair or better.
This is an easy call to make and should be easy to remember.
Consider NOT playing the progressive.
This depends a lot on your temperament and the size of the
jackpot. If the jackpot is low, it's almost never a good bet to play
the progressive bet. But if the jackpot is really high, it might be
worth it to you.
I have a friend who told me that he got $1 worth of pleasure just
thinking about what he could buy if he DID actually win the lottery.
If you have a similar temperament, then go ahead and make the
progressive bet.
Just a quick note about some of the odds on the progressive, too.
If a flush is paying $100 on a $1 bet, but you're only going to see
a flush once ever 526 hands, how good a bet is that?
Keep in mind that if you do play the progressive, you win even
if the dealer doesn't qualify.
It's a bit of peace of mind more than anything.
If you have nothing, fold.
Having nothing is a lose-lose situation. The only way you can win
is if the dealer also has nothing, in which case you just get your
bet returned to you. That's not a good bet.
Odds and Tips
The Caribbean Stud poker tips given on this page come directly
from an understanding of the odds and probabilities in the game.
One final tip, and one final comment about the odds. The house
edge for Caribbean Stud poker is about 5.2%. This does not make it
one of the best bets in the casino, and in fact, makes it one of the
worst bets in the casino. This puts Caribbean Stud on a par with
roulette in fact.
Related tip: Play for fun, and don't expect to win on a
consistent basis. Any time the house has that big an edge, you won't
win consistently, but you might get lucky.
Be sure to visit the rest of our guide to Caribbean Stud Poker:
