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Using Stats to Determine Hand Ranges

 

 

Digg!

Hand Ranges Revealed in Pokertracker Stats

So, once you've collected say, 800 hands on an opponent you may notice that they raise 8% of their hands. What kind of hand range does that translate into?

Let's start by gathering up the building blocks. You may want to bookmark this page for future reference.

Building Blocks
Any particular pair .45%
Any suited combination - ex. JTs .3%
Any unsuited combination - ex. KTo .9%

You can take those building blocks, and see what numbers you'd expect for some popular hand groupings. For instance, anyone raising nothing but the best 10 hands would raise 4.4% of the time.

Reasonable Hand Groups and their Numbers
Premium Hands: AA, KK, QQ, AKs 1.65%
"Group 1" hands: add the JJ 2.11%
"Top 10" hands: add TT, AQs, AJs, KQs, AK 4.4%
Any pocker pair 5.9%
"Group 3" hands: 99, JTs, QJs, KJs, ATs, AQ 2.56%
Any suited Ace 3.6%
"Group 4" hands: T9s, KQ, 88, QTs, 98s, J9s, AJ, KTs 3.77%
Any unsuited Ace 10.9%
Any Ace, suited or not 14.9%
"Group 5" hands: 77, 87s, Q9s, T8s, KJ, QJ, JT, 76s, 97s, Axs, 65s 7.39%
"Group 6" hands: 66, AT, 55, 86s, KT, QT, 54s, K9s, J8s, 75s 5.13%
"Group 7" hands: 44, J9, 64s, T9, 53s, 33, 98, 43s, 22, Kxs, T7s, Q8s 7.99%
"Group 8" hands: 87, A9, Q9, 76, 42s, 32s, 96s, 85s, J8, J7s, 65, 54, 74s, K9, T8 9.95%
Any 2 suited cards23.5%
Any two connectors14.5%
Any suited connector3.6%

I don't think the information in the chart is worth memorizing the first time you see it. But, I do think it's worth having so that you can begin to build some hand ranges based on those numbers. Let's look at a few examples of PreFlop Raising numbers and their possible/probable hand ranges.

Example #1: The villan is seeing 45% of the flops, and Raising 3% of the time over 1,000 hands. Well, he's certainly not raising any pair. There's no hand grouping that translates directly in a "pfr" of 3%. Hmmph.

The closest hand grouping we have to 3% are the "Top 10" hands. If he raised each of the Top 10 hands every time he saw it, he'd have a pfr closer to 4.5%. If he decided to raise some of those hands when in position (like KQs, AQs, and AJs) but not all of the time, he might have a pfr of close to 3% instead.

So, if when this Villan raises in position, we can't be sure whether he has AJs or AA. But, if he raises from Under The Gun, we can realistically eliminate a lot of hands from his range (KJs, AT, 77, QJs, etc.), and give him credit for a big hand until we learn he plays otherwise.

Example #2: The Villan is seeing 26% of the flops, and Raising 20% of the time, over 900 hands. Basically, he enters the pot for a raise whenever he enters. That's what he does. So, what kind of hands might he be playing?

Well, he's certainly raising more than the Top 10 hands. In fact, if he were raising every time he got hands from the top 4 groups (that would stretch "down" as far as hands like AJ, 98s, KTs) he'd still only be raising 11% of the time. So, he's entering pots with a w-i-d-e range of hands. If we include any pocket pair, he'd be near a pfr of 16%. That's still not as high as our Villan.

Perhaps he raises with suited connectors as well? If he did, that would put him at a pre-flop raise number of 20%.

If you can add your own observations of his play to the numbers you have on him, you'll have a better chance of defining his range.

Example #3: The Villan raises 13% of the time, over 2,400 hands. I've seen him win a hand where he raised preflop with a pair of 3's, and hit his set. So, I know he raises any pair. That's 5.9%. Add the top three hand groups, and he'd have a pfr of nearly 13%.

When he raises, I would put him on a range of: any pocket pair, or hands from the first three groups. If he raised in Late Position, I would include some hands from group four, like AJ/KQ/T9s.


♠ Notes:
When using stats to try to put an opponent on a range of hands, remember that VPIP (Voluntarily Put Into Pot) numbers include limps from the small blind. If you're playing at a full ring table, the player's numbers might be inflated by 2-5% compared to his non-sb range. At 6-max tables, it can be inflated 6-10%.

♠ The Math:
If you take a deck of cards, you can find out that there are 6 different ways to form a pair. For example, a pair of tens can include:
Tspades Thearts  |  Tspades Tdiamonds  |  Tspades Tclubs  |  Tdiamonds Thearts  |  Tdiamonds Tclubs  |  Thearts Tclubs

Non-Pairs can be formed in 16 different ways, 4 of them suited, 12 of them offsuit.

6 combos for each pair = 13*6 = 78

78 suited combinations = 4*78 = 312

78 offsuit combinations = 12*78 = 936

For a total of 1,326 card combinations.